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Global trade has never been a bigger slice of the world economy. However, China, the country that most people think of as the export giant, has seen a decline in its trade-to-GDP ratio in the last 15 years.

The chart shows China’s trade in goods and services as a share of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 1970, it was just 5%. Following Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms, which opened China to market forces and international trade, this figure soared to 64% in 2006. But since then, it has fallen considerably, reaching 37% in 2023 — still far higher than before the 1990s. China's exports have grown in dollar terms, but its economy has expanded even faster, making trade a shrinking share of the whole.

While the 2008 financial crisis disrupted global trade, China’s trajectory also reflects the increase in domestic demand for its products. The decline in the trade-to-GDP ratio since 2006 reflects a shift from export-led growth toward domestic consumption, not a return to pre-reform levels. For years, Chinese officials have advocated rebalancing the economy away from export dependence and toward one driven by domestic consumption. A rising middle class now buys more of what China produces, reducing its reliance on international markets.

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The decline in manufacturing jobs — such as those in factories or industrial plants — often draws significant attention in political debates and media reports in the US, especially when tied to discussions about trade policies, globalization, or job losses in key industries.

This focus can sometimes overshadow that manufacturing jobs are already a relatively small part of the labor market. In the US, for example, they account for less than 10% of total employment.

The chart shows the evolution of manufacturing as a proportion of total employment in the US and five other rich countries, using estimates compiled by the UN.

Across all countries, manufacturing employment has declined. In the US, it fell from 13% in 2000 to just below 10% in 2022. Even in Germany, where it is the highest among this group, manufacturing is now down to less than 20%.

Explore the data on the share of manufacturing jobs in other countries →

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According to the latest trade statistics from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, the sum of exports and imports across countries amounted to 63% of global GDP in 2022, the most recent year available.

This metric, also known as the trade openness index, represents the ratio of total trade (exports plus imports) to global output. The higher this ratio, the greater the influence of international trade transactions on global economic activity.

The chart shows the trade openness trend since 1970. After a decade of ups and downs, with a noticeable dip in 2020, trade rebounded above pre-pandemic levels in 2022.

In fact, from a long-run perspective, the 63% observed in 2022 was historically unprecedented.

Economic historians estimate that in 1912, at the peak of the “first wave of globalization”, the trade openness index reached 30%. Global trade declined substantially during the First and Second World Wars, then increased again with the onset of the “second wave of globalization”, exceeding 50% of GDP at the beginning of the 21st century.

The fact that global trade openness was higher in 2022 than ever before may seem surprising, given that several countries that followed different trajectories received considerable attention in the media. For example, imports and exports peaked at 65% of GDP in China in 2006 but have since declined to 38% in 2022.

Read more about the first and second waves of globalization →